WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 29 October 2006 Bob McDavitt's ideas for South Pacific sailing weather.
(Standard disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos, these ideas come from the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place).
All settling down now in the SW Pacific, as we move into a quiet phase of the Madden -Julian Oscillation. If the oscillation repeats then the next burst of tropical activity can be expected in late November//early December. For those wanting to know the next names on the cyclone list, those forming east of 160E will be YANI, ZITA and ARTHUR, and those forming west of 160E will be NELSON, ODETTE and PIERRE.
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE SPCZ XAVIER formed soon after some near equatorial westerly winds turned up- they were tossed out of Asia by the Monsoon. They normally arrive around mid December, so their early arrival is significant. These westerlies have now arrived over Kiribati and are helping tropical lows to form in the Rotuma/Futuna/Tokelau area. XAVIER helped the SPCZ to come south and visit Fiji last week ("starting the wet season", and Suva needs the water).
This week the SPCZ should stay in the zone from SE Solomons to Samoa to Southern Cooks. Next Low to form on it is being forecast to do so near Southern cooks around 8 November, and that will move off to the southeast.
SUBTROPICS: There seems to be a weekly rhythm in the Highs. The next High moving along about 35S. The next High is now in the Tasman Sea and should cross the North Island on 1-2 November and the area east of NZ from 2-8 November It is at 35S and slightly south of the last one, so the squash zone on its northern side is also slightly further south. The strong winds that have been bothering central Tonga are relaxing as the old High relaxes away, and the new High should bring strong winds to the Minerva area on 4-5-6 November.
NZ/TASMAN AREA: A week trough and maybe a low is likely to cross the area north and east of Northland on 2-3-4 November but this is not evolving as intensely as I was thinking it would, so it isn't much of a sailing problem after all.
The High crossing the North Island this week means anyone sailing to Northland is in luck with a week of reasonable winds. The next trough and front for Northland is at this stage due on 8-9 November, so if you are coming south please time you arrival so as not to make landfall with the front.
The terms used here are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht
Pack. Feedback to mcdavitt@metservice.com - Bob McDavitt
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